IN MY OPINION: Trump factor figures into why GOP reps, senators are bailing out of Legislature

The unusual exodus of Republican legislators from the Wisconsin Senate and Assembly undoubtedly stems from differing personal factors by each office holder. But the dark pall over the Republican Party cast by President Donald Trump surely also figured heavily into their departures.

Six Republican senators are not seeking reelection. That’s six out of 18 from the current GOP margin of 18-15.

No Democrats are retiring. Three Democrats are running for higher office, including Francesca Hong, who is running for governor, and two incumbent representatives running for the state Senate.

It’s a similar GOP retirement story in the Assembly. Nine Republican representatives have decided not to run, including Rob Brooks of Saukville.

The fairly slim margins give Democrats an opportunity to tip control of the Senate by winning two seats held by Republicans. The probability of that happening is higher with the six Republican departures .

In the Assembly, the GOP currently holds a 54-45 majority. If the Democrats could pick up five seats from the nine districts with retiring Republicans, they would flip that body from Republican to Democratic control.

Second-term President Trump has shown powerful clout in GOP primaries across the country, but across the U.S. population as a whole, where general elections will be decided in November, his positive polling numbers are at his all-time low. His disapproval ratings across a significant number of polls are north 58%.

More telling are his “strongly disapprove” ratings in some polls that are north of 45%. Those are people who hate his guts and everything he stands for.

You can be sure that Wisconsin legislators are getting an earful about Trump’s handling of the economy, his bumbling mismanagement of affordability, the damage from tariff uncertainty, inflation and decisions to use or threaten military power in at least four countries. These are national issues, but they inevitably spill over to state elections.

Trump is totally the face of the Republican Party. He blurts Truth Social messages profusely many times of day and night. He never shuts up. That blather has to be depressing to Republican office holders up and down ballots.

It isn’t just Republican legislators who are bailing out. But it also has been high profile GOP congressmen like Paul Ryan and Mike Gallagher of Wisconsin who deserted Trump’s party. Those level-headed and astute politicians are a big loss to the party and the country.

In addition to voluntary departures, President Trump is depleting the ranks of the GOP by endorsing challengers to sitting congressmen whom he deems disloyal to himself. That includes recently defeated Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana and Rep. Thomas Massey of Kentucky. In short, Trump’s army is in tatters at the Wisconsin and federal levels. The departees wanted to leave with their reputations intact.

The tests of whether Trump’s coattails are a plus or a minus will be crystal clear in Wisconsin come November. The president has endorsed Tom Tiffany, a northern Wisconsin congressman for governor, and Tiffany has enthusiastically welcomed Trump’s blessing.

The seven Democrats running for Wisconsin governor will be campaigning ferociously against Tiffany’s strong ties to Trump.

If Trump prevails broadly in November, midterm elections you can bet that he will try to finagle an unconstitutional route to a third term.

One final observation: Republican leaving office in Wisconsin can lay claim to at least one strategic victory. Wisconsin was long in the “Big Ten” for the level of state and local taxation. Getting rid of its reputation as a high-tax state was always a Republican goal. Thanks in part to the level-headed stewardship of the retiring Republicans, Wisconsin is now in the middle of the pack among the 50 states. That has been a big win for competitiveness among the states and, therefore, economic development.